Policy-oriented inference and the analyst-client cooperation.
An example from small-area estimation
N. T. Longford
Abstract
We show on an application to small-area statistics that efficient estimation
is not always conducive to good policy decisions, because the established
inferential procedures have no capacity to incorporate the priorities and
preferences of the policy makers and the related consequences of incorrect
decisions. A method that addresses these deficiencies is described. We argue
that elicitation of the perspectives of the client (sponsor) and their
quantification are essential elements of the analysis, because different
estimators (decisions) are appropriate for different perspectives. An example
of planning an intervention in a country’s districts with high rate of illiteracy
is described. In the problem, the established small-area estimators perform poorly
because the minimum mean squared error is an inappropriate criterion.
In Statistics in Transition, 16, 65-82, 2015.